光华会计新才智论坛第二期
时 间：2024年4月1日（周一）10:30-16:00
地 点：柳林校区诚正楼 645会议室、腾讯会议137-340-959
主持人：陈磊 教授（现代会计研究所所长）
时间：10:30-11:10
报告1：High Temperature, Climate Change and Real Estate Prices
报告人：马莉（纽约城市大学巴鲁学院）
摘要：We study the impact of local temperature spikes in the United States on real estate prices. Initially, we find that extreme temperatures intensify concerns about climate change and lead to more people moving out than in. Our analysis reveals that areas experiencing temperature spikes undergo a significant decrease in property values. This impact is more substantial in areas with greater awareness of global warming, during times when climate change is a major public concern, and in areas vulnerable to rising sea levels. Interestingly, while these temperature anomalies influence property sale prices, they do not affect rental rates similarly. This suggests that concerns about long-term climate threats mainly drive the decline in property values.
时间：11:10-11:50
报告2：Anomalies Never Disappeared: The Case of Stubborn Retail Investors
报告人：杨雨晴（纽约城市大学巴鲁学院）
摘要：Defying conventional beliefs, our analysis of 260 anomalies over the last half-century reveals that they have not vanished as market efficiency improves, because their alphas predominantly materialize over the long haul—an overlooked timeframe with far-reaching financial and real implications. The enduring long-run alphas in recent years are driven by the anomalies that retail investors trade against, yielding staggering value-weighted two-year alphas of 23%. Incorporating retail trading, we develop asset pricing models that surpass existing prominent models in explaining these long-run alphas. We propose and validate a hypothesis: the stubbornness of retail investors underpins long-run alphas, inflicting long-horizon risks on arbitrageurs. Our findings imply that as society advances and other frictions fade, the unyielding nature of financially naive individuals will remain an enduring impediment to market efficiency.
时间：13:00-13:40
报告3：Political Uncertainty and Expected Market Uncertainty: The Uncertainty of Policy Changes
报告人：胡星怡（罗格斯大学）
摘要：Focusing on the chance of policy change, this study examines its impact on expected market uncertainty through the recent U.S. presidential elections. Guided by Pástor and Veronesi (2013), our measure captures the probability of policy changes brought by elections. This study applies the VIX futures term structure and unveils both long-term and short-term impacts of the probability of policy change: In the long term, the probability of policy change elevates the convexity of the term structure, increasing concerns about future market volatility. In the short term, it changes the shape of the term structure around the event. Consistent findings are obtained from national polls, battleground states, and betting markets.
时间：13:40-14:20
报告4：Suppliers’ Strategic Adaptations in Competing for Common Customers: Insights
报告人：王璐（香港中文大学）
摘要：This paper examines whether and how the product development of focal suppliers is affected by competition from customer-connected peer suppliers. We have discovered that focal suppliers tend to file fewer trademarks when facing intense competition from customer-connected competitors. This negative association becomes more pronounced when supplier firms operate in trademark-dependent industries, when their relationship-specific investments are higher, and when suppliers and customers are more vertically related. Further results suggest that: (a) The concentration of trademark classes and overall overlaps between suppliers and customers increases as peer competition intensifies. (b) Implementing such a strategy could help extend the duration of customer-supplier relationships and improve supplier performance. (c) Technological overlaps also increase.
时间：14:20-15:00
报告5：Is Audit Opinion of Major Customer Informative? Evidence of Supplier Cash Holding
报告人： 吕庆远（香港大学）
摘要：This study examines the informativeness of major customer audit opinions on supplier firms. Through the analysis of hand-collected data on major customer audit opinions, the findings reveal that suppliers significantly increase their cash holdings when the major customer receives a modified opinion that indicates material uncertainty or going concern. This reaction is motivated by the need for precautionary measures to mitigate liquidation risk. Cross-sectional tests demonstrate that modified opinions play a significant role in reducing information asymmetry between the supplier and the customer. Furthermore, firm level experience and industry level expertise of auditors will strengthen the informativeness of customer audit opinions. I use IV-2SLS design to resolve endogeneity concerns of omitted variables and reverse causality issues and conduct a series of robustness tests to facilitate the findings. Besides, I also find that modified opinions of major customer are negatively related with supplier sales, the continuity of customer relationship, the trade credit granted to the major customer and the tone of supplier financial disclosure. This study contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the usefulness of audit opinions and emphasizing the incremental role that auditors can play in supply-chain relationships.
