光华讲坛

主 题：The Promise and Peril of Generative AI: Evidence from ChatGPT as Sell-Side Analysts （生成式AI的潜力和风险：基于ChatGPT作为股票分析师的证据）

主讲人：屠致远（澳门bet356体育在线官网）

主持人：屠致远

时 间：2023年12月19日（周二）10:30-12:00

主 办：澳门bet356体育在线官网

主讲人简介：

屠致远，澳门bet356体育在线官网副教授

Abstract: We examine the accuracy of generative AI models in predicting future earnings. Using the state-of-the-art GPT-4 model, we ask the model to predict future earnings, accompanied by justifications. GPT’s forecasts exhibit larger forecast errors compared to analyst consensus. These forecasts are also on average overly optimistic compared to realized earnings. The accuracy of GPT’s forecasts improves when firms have a better information environment, and when press releases contain more high-quality content. Overall, our analyses show great promise of generative AI in assisting human effort at information processing and content creation for financial market participants but also highlight the peril of blind reliance on these models when there is a lack of high-quality information.

摘要：本文考察了生成式AI在预测企业盈利方面的能力。基于最新的GPT-4模型，本文要求模型给出企业的未来业绩预测，并同时给出预测的理由。 本文发现GPT的业绩预测较分析师平均预测而言误差较大。且相较于真实的盈利结果，GPT的预测更倾向于过度乐观估计企业盈利。本文同时发现：当被预测企业信息环境质量更好时或当企业业绩报告新闻稿当的信息质量更高时，GPT的预测将更准确。本文结果显示生成式AI在协助市场参与者处理信息和生成内容方面有巨大潜力，同时也显示了盲目依赖生成式AI的潜在风险, 尤其是在本身就缺乏高质量信息的场景之中。